claude-skills-reference/finance/financial-analyst/references/valuation-methodology.md

Valuation Methodology Guide

Comprehensive reference for business valuation approaches including DCF analysis, comparable company analysis, and precedent transactions.

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Methodology

Overview

DCF is an intrinsic valuation method that estimates the present value of a company's expected future free cash flows, discounted at an appropriate rate reflecting the risk of those cash flows.

Core Principle: The value of a business equals the present value of all future cash flows it will generate.

Formula:

Enterprise Value = Sum of [FCF_t / (1 + WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^n

Where:

• FCF_t = Free Cash Flow in year t
• WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital
• n = number of projection years

Step 1: Historical Analysis

Before projecting, analyze 3-5 years of historical financials:

• Revenue growth rates - Identify organic vs acquisition-driven growth
• Margin trends - Gross, operating, and net margin trajectories
• Capital intensity - CapEx as % of revenue
• Working capital - Cash conversion cycle trends
• Free cash flow conversion - FCF / Net Income ratio

Step 2: Revenue Projections

Approaches:

1. Top-down: Market size x Market share x Pricing
2. Bottom-up: Units x Price, or Customers x ARPU
3. Growth rate extrapolation: Historical growth with decay

Revenue Projection Best Practices:

• Use 5-7 year explicit projection period
• Growth should converge toward GDP growth by terminal year
• Support assumptions with market data and management guidance
• Model revenue by segment/product line when possible

Step 3: Free Cash Flow Calculation

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF):

UFCF = EBIT x (1 - Tax Rate)
     + Depreciation & Amortization
     - Capital Expenditures
     - Changes in Net Working Capital

Key Drivers:

• Operating margin trajectory
• CapEx as % of revenue (maintenance vs growth)
• Working capital requirements (DSO, DIO, DPO)
• Tax rate (effective vs marginal)

Step 4: WACC Calculation

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = (E/V x Re) + (D/V x Rd x (1 - T))

Where:

• E/V = Equity weight (market value)
• D/V = Debt weight (market value)
• Re = Cost of equity
• Rd = Cost of debt (pre-tax)
• T = Marginal tax rate

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Re = Rf + Beta x (Rm - Rf) + Size Premium + Company-Specific Risk

Component	Description	Typical Range
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)	10-year Treasury yield	3.5% - 5.0%
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)	Market return above risk-free	5.0% - 7.0%
Beta	Systematic risk relative to market	0.5 - 2.0
Size Premium	Small-cap additional risk	0% - 5%
Company-Specific Risk	Unique risk factors	0% - 5%

Beta Estimation:

• Use 2-5 year weekly returns against broad market index
• Unlevered betas for comparability, then re-lever to target capital structure
• Consider industry median beta for stability

Cost of Debt

Rd = Yield on comparable-maturity corporate bonds
   OR
Rd = Risk-Free Rate + Credit Spread

Credit Spread by Rating:

Rating	Typical Spread
AAA	0.5% - 1.0%
AA	1.0% - 1.5%
A	1.5% - 2.0%
BBB	2.0% - 3.0%
BB	3.0% - 5.0%
B	5.0% - 8.0%

Step 5: Terminal Value

Terminal value typically represents 60-80% of total enterprise value. Use two methods and cross-check.

Perpetuity Growth Method

TV = FCF_n x (1 + g) / (WACC - g)

Where g = terminal growth rate (typically 2.0% - 3.0%, should not exceed long-term GDP growth)

Sensitivity: Terminal value is highly sensitive to g. A 0.5% change in g can move enterprise value by 15-25%.

Exit Multiple Method

TV = Terminal Year EBITDA x Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple

Exit Multiple Selection:

• Use current trading multiples of comparable companies
• Consider whether current multiples are at historical highs/lows
• Apply a discount for lack of marketability if private

Cross-Check: Both methods should yield similar results. Large discrepancies signal inconsistent assumptions.

Step 6: Enterprise to Equity Bridge

Enterprise Value
- Net Debt (Total Debt - Cash)
- Minority Interest
- Preferred Equity
+ Equity Method Investments
= Equity Value

Equity Value / Diluted Shares Outstanding = Value Per Share

Step 7: Sensitivity Analysis

Always present results as a range, not a single point estimate.

Standard Sensitivity Tables:

1. WACC vs Terminal Growth Rate
2. WACC vs Exit Multiple
3. Revenue Growth vs Operating Margin

Scenario Analysis:

• Base case: Management guidance / consensus estimates
• Bull case: Upside scenario with faster growth or margin expansion
• Bear case: Downside scenario with slower growth or margin compression

2. Comparable Company Analysis

Methodology

1. Select peer group - Similar size, industry, growth profile, and margins
2. Calculate trading multiples for each peer
3. Determine appropriate multiple range
4. Apply to target company's metrics

Common Multiples

Multiple	When to Use
EV/Revenue	Pre-profit companies, high-growth tech
EV/EBITDA	Most common for mature companies
EV/EBIT	When D&A differs significantly across peers
P/E	Stable earnings, financial services
P/B	Banks, insurance, asset-heavy industries
EV/FCF	Capital-light businesses with clean FCF

Peer Selection Criteria

• Industry: Same or closely adjacent sectors
• Size: Within 0.5x to 2x of target revenue/market cap
• Geography: Same primary markets
• Growth profile: Similar revenue growth rates (within 5-10%)
• Margin profile: Similar operating margin structure
• Business model: Comparable revenue mix and customer base

Premium/Discount Adjustments

Factor	Adjustment
Higher growth	Premium of 1-3x on EV/EBITDA
Lower margins	Discount of 1-2x
Smaller scale	Discount of 10-20%
Private company	Discount of 15-30% (illiquidity)
Control premium	Premium of 20-40% (for acquisitions)

3. Precedent Transaction Analysis

Methodology

1. Identify comparable transactions in same industry
2. Calculate transaction multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA)
3. Adjust for market conditions and deal-specific factors
4. Apply adjusted multiples to target

Key Considerations

• Transactions include control premiums (typically 20-40%)
• Market conditions at time of deal affect multiples
• Strategic vs financial buyer valuations differ
• Consider synergy expectations embedded in price
• More recent transactions carry greater relevance

4. Valuation Framework Selection

Situation	Primary Method	Secondary Method
Profitable, stable	DCF	Comparable companies
High growth, pre-profit	Comparable companies (EV/Revenue)	DCF with scenario analysis
M&A target	Precedent transactions	DCF
Asset-heavy, cyclical	Asset-based valuation	Normalized DCF
Financial institution	Dividend discount model	P/B, P/E comps
Distressed	Liquidation value	Restructured DCF

5. Common Pitfalls

1. Hockey stick projections - Unrealistic growth acceleration in later years
2. Terminal value dominance - If TV > 80% of EV, shorten projection period or question assumptions
3. Circular references - WACC depends on equity value which depends on WACC
4. Ignoring working capital - Can significantly affect FCF
5. Single-point estimates - Always present as a range
6. Stale comparables - Market conditions change; update regularly
7. Confirmation bias - Don't work backward from a desired conclusion
8. Ignoring dilution - Use fully diluted shares (treasury stock method for options)