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Build campaign-analytics, financial-analyst, customer-success-manager, sales-engineer, and revenue-operations skills using the Claude Skills Factory workflow. Each skill includes SKILL.md, Python CLI tools, reference guides, and asset templates. All 16 Python scripts use standard library only with --format json/text support. Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
185 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
185 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
# DCF Valuation Analysis
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## Report Header
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| Field | Value |
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|-------|-------|
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| **Company** | [Company Name] |
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| **Ticker** | [Ticker Symbol] |
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| **Analysis Date** | [Date] |
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| **Prepared By** | [Analyst Name] |
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| **Current Share Price** | $[X] |
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| **Shares Outstanding** | [X]M |
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## Executive Summary
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[2-3 sentence overview of the valuation conclusion, including the implied value range per share compared to the current market price, and whether the stock appears undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.]
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### Valuation Summary
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| Method | Enterprise Value | Equity Value | Value Per Share | vs Current Price |
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|--------|-----------------|-------------|----------------|-----------------|
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| DCF (Perpetuity Growth) | $[X]M | $[X]M | $[X] | [X]% |
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| DCF (Exit Multiple) | $[X]M | $[X]M | $[X] | [X]% |
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| Comparable Companies | $[X]M | $[X]M | $[X] | [X]% |
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| **Blended Estimate** | **$[X]M** | **$[X]M** | **$[X]** | **[X]%** |
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## Investment Thesis
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[Summary of the investment case, including key strengths, risks, and catalysts.]
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## Historical Financial Summary
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| ($M) | FY-4 | FY-3 | FY-2 | FY-1 | LTM |
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|------|------|------|------|------|-----|
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| Revenue | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| Revenue Growth | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
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| Gross Profit | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| Gross Margin | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
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| EBITDA | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| EBITDA Margin | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
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| Net Income | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| Free Cash Flow | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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## WACC Calculation
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### Cost of Equity (CAPM)
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| Component | Value | Source |
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|-----------|-------|--------|
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| Risk-Free Rate | [X]% | [10-Year Treasury] |
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| Equity Risk Premium | [X]% | [Damodaran / internal] |
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| Beta (Levered) | [X] | [Bloomberg / regression] |
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| Size Premium | [X]% | [Duff & Phelps] |
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| Company-Specific Risk | [X]% | [Analyst judgment] |
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| **Cost of Equity** | **[X]%** | |
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### Cost of Debt
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| Component | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | [X]% |
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| Tax Rate | [X]% |
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| After-Tax Cost of Debt | [X]% |
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### Capital Structure
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| Component | Market Value ($M) | Weight |
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|-----------|------------------|--------|
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| Equity | [X] | [X]% |
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| Debt | [X] | [X]% |
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| **Total Capital** | **[X]** | **100%** |
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### WACC Result: [X]%
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## Revenue Projections
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| ($M) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
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|------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
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| Revenue | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| Growth Rate | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
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**Key Revenue Assumptions:**
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- [Assumption 1 with supporting rationale]
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- [Assumption 2 with supporting rationale]
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- [Assumption 3 with supporting rationale]
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## Free Cash Flow Projections
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| ($M) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
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|------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
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| Revenue | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| EBIT | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| Taxes on EBIT | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) |
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| NOPAT | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| D&A | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| CapEx | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) |
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| Change in NWC | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) | ([X]) |
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| **Unlevered FCF** | **[X]** | **[X]** | **[X]** | **[X]** | **[X]** |
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| FCF Margin | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
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## Terminal Value
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### Perpetuity Growth Method
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| Component | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| Terminal FCF | $[X]M |
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| Terminal Growth Rate | [X]% |
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| WACC | [X]% |
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| **Terminal Value** | **$[X]M** |
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| TV as % of EV | [X]% |
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### Exit Multiple Method
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| Component | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| Terminal EBITDA | $[X]M |
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| Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple | [X]x |
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| **Terminal Value** | **$[X]M** |
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| TV as % of EV | [X]% |
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## Enterprise Value Bridge
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| Component | Perpetuity Growth | Exit Multiple |
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|-----------|------------------|---------------|
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| PV of Projected FCFs | $[X]M | $[X]M |
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| PV of Terminal Value | $[X]M | $[X]M |
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| **Enterprise Value** | **$[X]M** | **$[X]M** |
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| Less: Net Debt | ($[X]M) | ($[X]M) |
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| Less: Minority Interest | ($[X]M) | ($[X]M) |
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| **Equity Value** | **$[X]M** | **$[X]M** |
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| Diluted Shares (M) | [X] | [X] |
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| **Value Per Share** | **$[X]** | **$[X]** |
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## Sensitivity Analysis
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### WACC vs Terminal Growth Rate (Enterprise Value, $M)
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| WACC \ Growth | [g-2]% | [g-1]% | [g]% | [g+1]% | [g+2]% |
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|--------------|--------|--------|------|--------|--------|
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| [WACC-2]% | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| [WACC-1]% | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| **[WACC]%** | [X] | [X] | **[X]** | [X] | [X] |
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| [WACC+1]% | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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| [WACC+2]% | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
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### Implied Share Price Range
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| Scenario | Share Price | vs Current | Upside/Downside |
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|----------|-----------|------------|----------------|
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| Bear Case (WACC+2%, g-2%) | $[X] | [X]% | [X]% |
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| Base Case | $[X] | [X]% | [X]% |
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| Bull Case (WACC-2%, g+2%) | $[X] | [X]% | [X]% |
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## Key Risks to Valuation
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1. **[Risk 1]** - [Description and potential impact on value]
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2. **[Risk 2]** - [Description and potential impact on value]
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3. **[Risk 3]** - [Description and potential impact on value]
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## Comparable Company Analysis
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| Company | EV/Revenue | EV/EBITDA | P/E | Growth | Margin |
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|---------|-----------|----------|-----|--------|--------|
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| [Comp 1] | [X]x | [X]x | [X]x | [X]% | [X]% |
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| [Comp 2] | [X]x | [X]x | [X]x | [X]% | [X]% |
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| [Comp 3] | [X]x | [X]x | [X]x | [X]% | [X]% |
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| [Comp 4] | [X]x | [X]x | [X]x | [X]% | [X]% |
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| **Median** | **[X]x** | **[X]x** | **[X]x** | **[X]%** | **[X]%** |
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| **[Target]** | **[X]x** | **[X]x** | **[X]x** | **[X]%** | **[X]%** |
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## Conclusion and Recommendation
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**Valuation Range:** $[Low] - $[High] per share
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**Current Price:** $[X]
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**Recommendation:** [Buy / Hold / Sell]
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[Final paragraph with investment recommendation rationale, key upside catalysts, and primary risks to monitor.]
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---
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*Analysis generated using Financial Analyst Skill - DCF Valuation Model*
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